"With the exception of Havana, no one of the colonies of the two nations is in a condition to resist the smallest part of the forces which England is now sending to America. We should abuse ourselves strangely by believing the English susceptible of being held back by motives of public faith and treaties. Experience has too well proved that they regard as just and honorable whatever is advantageous to their own nation or destructive to their rivals. Englishmen of all parties are persuaded that a popular war against France or an invasion of Mexico would terminate, or at least allay, their domestic dissensions, as well as furnish resources for the extinguishment of their national debt.

"If the king and the king of Spain were for war, it would, without doubt, be necessary to say to them that Providence has marked out this moment for the humiliation of England by striking her with the blindness which is the surest precursor of destruction, and that it is time to determine the moment to strike the decisive blows, which would ravish from her the empire which she claims in the four quarters of the world. But this is not the point of view chosen by the two monarchs; and their part appears under actual circumstances to limit itself, with one exception, to a cautious but active foresight.

"The continuance of the war for at least one year is desirable for the two crowns. To that end the British ministry must be maintained in the persuasion that France and Spain are pacific, so that it may not fear to embark in an active and costly campaign; while, on the other hand, the courage of the Americans might be kept up by secret favors and vague hopes, which would assist to develop ideas of independence. Should the mother country be victorious, she would for a long time need all her strength to keep down their spirit.

"If these considerations are judged to be well grounded, we ought to continue with dexterity to tranquillize the English ministry as to the intentions of France and Spain. It will be proper for the two monarchies to extend to the insurgents secret aid in military stores and money, without seeking any return for it beyond the political object of the moment; but it would not comport with the dignity or interest of the king

to treat with the insurgents till the liberty of English America shall have acquired consistency.

"In this moment of public danger it is indispensable to raise the effective force of the two monarchies to the height of their real power; for, whatever may be the issue of the present war between England and her colonies, of all conjectures which circumstances authorize, the least probable is that peace can be preserved."

This discussion of American affairs was simultaneous with the passionate opposition of the aristocracy of France to the reforms of Turgot. The parliament of Paris had just refused to register the royal edicts which he had wisely prepared for the relief of the peasants and the mechanics of the kingdom; and the registration of the decrees was enforced only by the extreme exercise of his prerogative against a remonstrance of the aristocracy, who to the last resisted the measures of justice to the laboring classes, as "confounding the nobility and the clergy with the rest of the people."

The king directed Vergennes to communicate his memorial on the colonies to Turgot, whose written opinion upon it was required. Vergennes obeyed, recommending to his colleague secrecy and celerity, for Spain was anxiously waiting the determination of the court of France. Turgot took more than three weeks for deliberation, allowed full course to his ideas, and on the sixth of April gave the king this ad

vice:

"Whatever may or ought to be the wish of the two crowns, nothing can arrest the course of events which sooner or later will certainly bring about the independence of the English colonies, and, as an inevitable consequence, a total revolution in the relations of Europe and America. The Anglo-American enthusiasts for liberty may be overwhelmed by force, but their will can never be broken. If their country is laid waste, they may disperse themselves among the boundless, inaccessible backwoods, and, from the depths of their retreats, be always ready to trouble the English establishments on their coasts. If their country is reduced without a universal devastation, the courage of the colonists will be like a spring, which remains bent only so long as an undiminished pressure weighs

it down. The project of the English ministry is the most extravagant which can be conceived.

"Should the English government, after costly efforts, fail in its plans against the colonies, it will hardly be disposed at once to form enterprises for compensation at the expense of France and Spain, when it will have lost the point of support needed for success.

"The present war will probably end in the absolute independence of the colonies, and that event will certainly be the epoch of the greatest revolution in the commerce and politics not of England only, but of all Europe. From the prudent conduct, the courage, and intelligence of the Americans, we may augur that they will take care, above all things, to give a solid form to their government; and, as a consequence, they will love peace and seek to preserve it.

"The rising republic will have only to open its harbors to all nations. Sooner or later, with good-will or from necessity, all European nations who have colonies will be obliged to leave them an entire liberty of trade, to regard them no more as subject provinces but as friendly states, distinct and separate even if protected. This the independence of the English colonies will inevitably hasten. Then the illusion which has lulled our politicians for two centuries will be dispelled; it will be seen that power founded on monopoly is precarious and frail, and that the restrictive system was useless and chimerical at the very time when it dazzled the most.

"If this is an evil, there is no way of preventing it, and no course to be taken but resignation to absolute necessity. The powers which shall obstinately resist will none the less see their colonies escape from them, to become their enemies instead of their allies.

"The yearly cost of colonies in peace, the enormous expenditures for their defence in war, lead to the conclusion that it is more advantageous for us to grant them entire independence, without waiting for the moment when events will compel us to give them up. Wise and happy will be that nation which shall first know how to bend to the new circumstances, and consent to see in its colonies allies and not subjects. When the total separation of America shall have healed the

European nations of the jealousy of commerce, there will exist among men one great cause of war the less, and it is very difficult not to desire an event which is to accomplish this good for the human race. In our colonies we shall save many millions; and, if we acquire the liberty of commerce and navigation with all the northern continent, we shall be amply compensated.

"Unhappily, Spain has less facility than any other power to quit the route that she has followed for two centuries, and conform to a new order of things. She has made no preparations to substitute for empire over her American provinces a fraternal connection founded on the identity of origin, language, and manners, without the opposition of interests; to offer them liberty as a gift, instead of yielding it to force. Nothing is more worthy of the wisdom of the king of Spain and his council than from this present time to fix their attention on the possibility of this forced separation, and on the measures to be taken to prepare for it.

"It is a very delicate question to know if we can, underhand, help the Americans to ammunition or money. There is no difficulty in shutting our eyes on their purchases in our ports; our merchants are free to sell to any who will buy of them; we do not distinguish the colonists from the English; but to aid the Americans with money would excite in the English just complaints.

"Combining all circumstances, it may certainly be believed that the English ministry does not desire war, and our preparations ought to tend only to the maintenance of peace. Peace is the preference of the king of France and the king of Spain. Every plan of aggression ought to be rejected, first of all from moral reasons. To these are to be added the reasons of interest, drawn from the situation of the two powers. Spain has not in her magazines the requirements for arming ships-ofwar, and cannot in time of need assemble a due number of sailors, nor count on the ability and experience of her naval officers. Her finances could not suffice for years of extraordinary efforts.

"As for us, the king knows that, in spite of economies and ameliorations since the beginning of his reign, the ex

penditure exceeds the revenue by twenty millions; the deficit can be made good only by an increase of taxes, a partial bankruptcy, or frugality. The king from the first has rejected the method of bankruptcy, and an increase of taxes in time of peace; but frugality requires nothing but a firm will. At his accession, his finances were involved, his army and navy in a state of weakness that was scarcely to have been imagined. For an unavoidable war, resources could be found; but war ought to be shunned as the greatest of misfortunes, since it would render impossible, perhaps forever, a reform, absolutely necessary to the prosperity of the state and the solace of the people."

Turgot had been one of the first to foretell and to desire the independence of the colonies as the means of regenerating the world; his virtues made him worthy to be the fellowlaborer of Washington; but, as a minister of his country, he looked at passing events through the clear light of genius illuminated by integrity.

The mind of France aspired to offer liberty a home. "For my part," reasoned Chastellux, "I think there can be neither durable liberty nor happiness but for nations who have representative governments." "I think so too," remarked the octogenarian, Voltaire. "The right of self-administration," said Malesherbes to Louis XVI., as he threw up his ministry, "belongs to every community; it is a natural right, the right of reason. The safest council for a king is the nation itself." The public mind applied itself to improving the condition of the common people. Chastellux, in his work on public felicity, which was just then circulating in Paris, with the motto NEVER DESPAIR, agreed with a Scottish writer on morals, that "the sole end of all government and the universal aim of all philosophy should be the greatest happiness of the greatest number." Turgot, by his earnest purpose to restrain profligate expenditure and lighten the grievous burdens of the people, seemed called forth by Providence to prop the falling throne, and hold back the nobility from the fathomless chaos toward which they were drifting. Yet he could look nowhere for support but to the king, who had no fixed principle and therefore no stability of purpose.

VOL. IV.-24