So much for the Minority Clause, and the Scotch and Irish constituencies. The English election returns must be submitted to a more searching examination; and with this view we have prepared a series of tables, mainly referring to them,* I which we think will interest our readers, and enable them to estimate the magnitude of the victory. Mr Gladstone says that isolated contests, "of which the issue is in a great degree dependent on close discipline, and finished and concentrated organisation," do not afford any conclusive test of the relative strength of parties; so we put the "byeelections" out of view in the meantime, and take, as the basis of our comparison, the election returns of December 1868 and February 1874. Our first table gives the population and electoral strength of the different boroughs which have changed sides since 1868. In Boroughs of more than 100,000 Inhabitants, The Radicals have won In Boroughs of between 60,000 and 100,000 Inhabitants, The Radicals have won returned for the Universities by a majority of 504. There was no contest at the general election. Dumfriesshire was regained in 1869 by a majority of 36. Renfrewshire is not entered in the table, as although it was temporarily occupied by the Tories, gallantly led by Col. Campbell at a "bye" election in 1873, it was again lost at the general election-Radical majority, 88. The calculations in these tables have been carefully made; but it is possible that, from the want of time to compare and correct, some errors may have crept in. These cannot, however, affect the general conclusions. There is no difficulty in dealing with elections where each party has only one candidate, or where the possession of one seat only is disputed; but where each party has two or more candidates contending for two or more seats, some amount of local knowledge is required to insure substantial accuracy. In the latter class of cases, when no special sources of information are available to us, we take the mean average number of votes polled by the candidates on each side, which, though an approximation only, may be held to represent fairly enough the relative strength of the rival parties in the constituency. won 9 seats as against 29 won by the Tories; while in boroughs of over 100,000 inhabitants (where the Tories have won 16 seats) the Radicals are literally nowhere. These figures require no comment. They bear eloquent testimony to the impression which the Tories have made on the most powerful, most populous, and most enlightened borough constituencies in the empire. Among the Radical gains, the small and corrupt Irish boroughs, where 50 electors vote on one side and 50 on the other, flourish conspicuously. Had it not been for these and similar supporters, the Liberal defeat would have been even more crushing than it was. It would rather seem that the small boroughs have ceased to fulfil the purpose for which they were retained in our Parliamentary system, and may now be safely dispensed with. Many distinguished statesmen have sat for pocket-boroughs, and in this way they were useful if not ornamental. They no longer, however, return men of mark. Until quite lately, the small local personages never dreamt of going into Parliament; but the general increase of wealth among all classes enables the country solicitor and the county banker to take a house in London during the season; and it is found, as a rule, that a pushing man of this class has commonly the best chance of carrying the borough in which he has made his money, and to which he may be said to belong. Party managers are hardly to be blamed if they prefer to run the candidate most likely to win; but it becomes matter for consideration whether in these circumstances the Tory party have any interest in maintaining an anomaly out of which capital is made by democratic agitators. There appears at least to be no good reason why (if at some future time the Radicals should insist upon a redistribution of seats) a number of the smaller boroughs should not be grouped together, and the seats thus rendered available handed over to the counties which are still most inadequately represented. With the above table it will be instructive to compare the next, which shows the gross and net advance in voting power made by the Tories in a considerable number of the English boroughs which they have won. It gives also, in each case, the Tory majority of 1874, as compared with the Radical majority of 1868; and it will be seen that, with one or two exceptions, the great majorities which the Radicals obtained in 1868 have uniformly been replaced by substantial Tory majorities. English Boroughs held by Radicals, attacked by Tories, gained by Tories. The number and importance of the seats which the Tories have won is not, however, the measure of their success. The decrease of Liberal voters in those constituencies which the Radicals have contrived to retain is a most significant and remarkable fact. In one or two of the Eastern boroughs the Radicals have won by increased majorities; but everywhere else the large majorities of 1868 have sensibly diminished,-growing small by degrees and beautifully less, in a most surprising way. English Boroughs held by Radicals, attacked by Tories, retained by Radicals. 32, 29, 27, 21, 53, 9, 4, 30! these are the majorities which the Radicals can now obtain in constituencies where, five years ago, they outnumbered their adversaries by hundreds. If the Tories of Macclesfield, and Reading, and Stroud, and Oxford, and Cardiff, and Flint, had been allowed another week to prepare, it cannot be doubted that the Radical positions in these boroughs would have been rendered untenable. The above tables show how the Tories have succeeded in their attack upon positions held by Radicals; the corresponding figures, *Birkenhead, which exhibit the measure of success which attended the Radical attack, may be very briefly dismissed. Few important positions were gained by them, and these only by inconsiderable majorities. They won Durham by 32 votes; Barnstaple by 33; Westbury by 22; Falmouth by 41; the Pembroke boroughs by 20; the second seat at Bolton by 33; and the second seat at Blackburn by 15. On the other hand, the Tory majorities at Birkenhead, Preston, Salford, Liver pool, and other great industrial centres, have largely increased.* What, then, in so far as the Tory majority, 1868. Tory majority, 1874. 880 40 1000 1000 2112 200 1600 4000 |