Countering the New Terrorism

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The contours of terrorism are changing, and the new terrorism has more diverse sources, motivations, and tactics than the old. It is more lethal, global in reach, and characterized by network forms of organization. Terrorist sponsorship is becoming hazier and "privatized." The August 1998 terrorist bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania fit in many ways the new mold. The chapters in this book trace the evolution of international terrorism against civilian and U.S. military targets, look ahead to where terrorism is going, and assess how it might be contained. Terrorism and counterterrorism are placed in strategic perspective, including how terrorism might be applied as an asymmetric strategy by less-capable adversaries. The report builds on a existing body of RAND research on terrorism and political violence, and makes extensive use of the RAND-St. Andrews Chronology of International Terrorism.
 

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INTRODUCTION
1
Study Approach and Structure
3
TERRORISM TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
7
Terrorisms Changing Characteristics
8
Terrorisms Increasing Lethality
10
Terrorist Tactical Adaptations Across the Technological Spectrum and Their Implications
28
The Example of IRA Targeting of British Forces in Northern Ireland
31
Implications for Antiterrorism and Force Protection
34
Proactive Counterterrorism and the USAF
77
Targeting Terrorists in the Information Age
80
Policy Implications and Conclusions for the USAF
81
COUNTERING THE NEW TERRORISM IMPLICATIONS FOR STRATEGY
85
Understanding and Countering the New Terrorism
86
Terrorism in Strategic Context
88
Indirect Attacks Affecting US Interests
92
Systemic Consequences
93

Conclusion
35
NETWORKS NETWAR AND INFORMATIONAGE TERRORISM
39
Recent Views About Terrorism
42
The Advent of Netwar Analytical Background
45
Definition of Netwar
47
More About Organizational Design
48
Caveats About the Role of Technology
52
Swarming and the Blurring of Offense and Defense
53
Challenges for Counternetwar
55
Middle Eastern Terrorism and Netwar
56
Structure and Actions
58
Middle Eastern Terrorist Groups and the Use of Information Technology
64
Summary Comment
67
Terrorist Doctrines The Rise of a War Paradigm
68
The War Paradigm
69
The NewWorld Paradigm
71
InformationAge Terrorism and the US Air Force
72
Toward a New USAF Strategy for Coping with InformationAge Terrorism
74
Mitigation Measures
75
Terrorism in the War Paradigm
94
Changing Definitions of Security
96
Terrorism and the Conflict Spectrum
97
Future Terrorism Geopolitics
99
Implications for the Future
110
The Lessons and Relevance of Counterterrorism Experience
111
The United Kingdom Experience
115
The French Experience
117
The Israeli Experience
120
Allied Perspectives on Terrorist Challenges Facing the United States
124
Lessons of the Allied Experience
126
Core Strategy
127
Environment Shaping
134
Hedging Strategy
138
Conclusions
140
Implications for Military Strategy and the US Air Force
142
Index
145
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