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RETROSPECT OF THE BRITISH AND FOREIGN CORN TRADE DURING THE HALF YEAR ENDING MAY 1837.

By Mr W. GRAY FEARNSIDE, London.

IN commencing a review of the state of the grain-trade, the subject of the weather is too important a topic to omit noticing in detail, as the variations in the barometer have frequently a controlling influence on the currencies and character of the markets. During the close of November and beginning of December, a considerable fall of rain was experienced, which materially impeded agricultural operations, the saturation of the earth preventing farmers from making much progress in getting their seed into the ground, while the completion of potato digging was deferred to a very late period; on the 23d the wind veered to the north-east, and all the characteristics of Old English Christmas prevailed, snow falling in such quantities that the metropolis was rendered almost isolated, being cut off from all home and foreign communications. Throughout the course of January the weather was gloomy in the extreme, depressing the animal, and consequently the speculative, spirits to the very lowest degree. The land remained wet and too cold to work, a great portion of winter wheat being unsown, and, in low situations, the land so soft and swampy, that it was rendered totally unfit for preparation to receive the spring corn. In many parts of England during this month as well as February, particularly northward, as well as in Scotland and Ireland, field labour was nearly suspended, most of the land intended to be sown with wheat still remaining in fallow; little progress made with spring sowing, and the growing crops deluged with rain, with partial sunshine by day, and hoarfrost at night. During March the weather set in cold and frosty, accompanied with drying winds from the east and north-east; and in some localities in England, the thermometer was five degrees lower than during any other period of the winter. The low lands were consequently brought into excellent condition; and in Ireland, few seasons have occurred in which the ground has become more mellowed and friable, or in finer condition to receive the seed; and though the nights were cold, which checked vegetation, yet great advances were made in all spring sowing, and the young wheats, in those counties on which London is more dependent for supply, assumed a more healthy and vigorous appearance, and, though backward, began to tiller out well. Scarcity of fodder, however, which had continued to prevail, had now become extremely severe, and, in some instances, hardly procurable; and considerable quantities of barley and oats were taken as substitutes for feeding sheep and cattle. In Scotland, the dearth was experienced to a greater extent, and which, in union with the severity of the weather, caused severe losses to graziers and owners of sheep, especially during the lambing season, which happened in the more mountainous districts while the snow was on the ground. Up to April, a similarity of weather and incidental circumstances was prevalent throughout the United Kingdom, with the exception that in Scotland, vegetation was more retarded and field operations more in arrear

than in most parts of England and Ireland. Indeed, from the commencement of the present year, month has succeeded month, and as later drew the period when, in the usual course of the seasons, Nature evinces the advancement to a more kindly and genial temperature, when weeks began to be numbered to the advent of the summer solstice, the hopes and fears of the farmers be came intensely excited; and until the near approach of May, few gleams of sunshine had appeared to cheer their prospects, nor had Nature's powerful agents, heat and moisture, been apparently in operation to promote the ne cessary advances of the vegetable kingdom. The apprehensions, however, entertained by the growers were chiefly founded on the aspect of the fields compared with similar periods of later seasons; and it is true that conclusions thus momentarily deduced could not, from existing appearances, have been then attended with any very favourable results. But the current year, from its peculiarly unseasonable character, has formed no fair criterion for judgment, and causes and their effects must have a more extended range for substantiating an opinion than the few past prolific and favoured seasons, though commonly it is with those representatives most fresh in the "mind's eye" that comparison is formed; the recollection is impressed that at a simi. lar period in the last five years, the young wheats had spread out their curling blades, and the land covered with a rich bed of deep luxuriant green, but that in April last, the eye had to wander over fields almost bare of verdure; forgetting, however, that we had no reason for imagining that the root of the wheat plant was affected, or that the germ of vitality was destroyed, but that with a return of mild temperature and genial showers, such as we are now expe riencing, the vegetative though latent powers of the plant were ready to burst forth with redoubled vigour, and which we have had the gratification of lately witnessing-the whole aspect of nature having started into life with all the ma gic rapidity of a Russian spring. Had any sudden and severe check been sustained, had all the vitality of the wheat plant been ready to burst forth into being, and the circulation of the juices had become paralyzed by an unexpected atmospheric transition from summer's warmth to winter's cold,— then might we be fearful of the future consequences, instead of which the weather, even previous to the germination of the winter corn, has been chilly and ungenial, not at any one time having afforded a stimulus to growth; and, therefore, with seasonable weather, we may with confidence expect that the dreary apprehensions entertained for the fate of the harvest will be effectually remedied, and which the young wheat is exemplifying, by hav ing so quickly assumed an improved and healthy aspect, though, in places, the plant still appears thin on the ground; and the breadth sown, owing to the obstructions the sowing of winter and Talavera qualities has had to encounter, has been much less than was contemplated, and which the advanced price of the article would have naturally induced. In England it is calculated not to exceed a customary average, but much less than usual in Scotland, and though increased in Ireland compared with the past season, yet still below an average of the augmented ratio of the few preceding years; in some instances in the latter kingdom, the cultivation of flax has been partially superseded by wheat, and is likely the current year to be discontinued to a considerable extent; many causes having combined to deter the farmer from sowing in larger

quantities than may be necessary for the employment of his own family. The additional expense for seed, the labour in preparing the ground, the number of hands requisite for weeding, pulling, watering, and grassing; the uncertainty of this process, the success of which depends so much upon the state of the weather and quality of the water, and in which a slight error may ruin the best crop; supposing all these to have been judiciously managed, the still greater risk of scutching being skilfully and honestly performed; but if, by great good fortune, the owner has been hitherto favoured in these respects, still the fineness of the texture must determine the question of a renumerating price. When we add to all this, that, from the closeness of the stems, the crop brings no manure, and leaves no stubble, the ground being more exhausted by the growth of flax, than, perhaps, by any other crop for the length of its continuance in it; indeed, unless clover or a potato crop intervene, good wheat, oats, or barley, need scarcely be expected. But in order to induce farmers to cultivate flax on an extensive scale, encouragement should be held out by liberal landlords and Farming Societies; and surely it would be a prudent policy in those possessing large spinning establishments to give as much preference as possible to the home growth; while owners of scutch-mills who are prevented from superintending their own concerns, should secure overseers and labourers of approved sobriety, experience and honesty; and thus give a confidence to the farmer, without which he can scarce be expected to risk the hazards of an uncertain crop. One of the most successful modes of rearing flax, and which, in fitting soils, has seldom failed, is, to lay out the ground in ridges of not more than ten feet wide, giving an additional ploughing, plough trenching the hintings pretty deep, and finishing the operation of harrowing by cross strokes, which will fill the furrows; roll well up and down, then sow your seed and cover it neatly with shovels, out of the furrows. Flax sown in this way comes up beautifully regular, none of the seed being too deeply buried, and none left uncovered; and thus spouting simultaneously, it will ripen together without the usual quantity of after-growth.

The sowing of summer corn has been eventually brought to a conclusion, and after all the ordeals it has had to encounter, has terminated throughout England, Scotland, and Ireland, under favourable auspices, and in parts four to five weeks earlier than last year; but, at the same time, it must not be lost sight of, that the advanced period of the season at which most of the seed in the more northern districts, was committed to the ground, renders the future condition and quality of the crops more precarious in a climate liable, at the autumnal equinox, to such sudden vicissitudes, and much irregularity of growth and ripening is likely to prevail.

We may be allowed to take some credit to ourselves for predicating last November, when a species of speculative mania pervaded the trade, when the excitement of one market infested another, which, as it were, inflamed again the one from whence the existing cause originated, until speculators became alarmed at their own creations. It is now apparent, as we then intimated, that the speculations emanated from want of quality and momentary supply, and more facility having been afforded in procuring discounts, and not from circumstances founded on facts or actual emergency; ridiculing the idea, that was entertained by sanguine purchasers, that England, France, and America,

would have to wage a war, not of opinion, principle, or aggression, but that the contest would be fought on the shores of the Baltic, Elbe, and Black Sea, for the privilege of obtaining bread-corn. From this memorable period in the modern annals of the Corn Trade, prices have, with slight fluctuations, continued to recede, and those holders acted wisely, who realized on the excitement of the moment; having obtained rates not likely again to range, unless fortuitous circumstances should attend the growth or securing of the ensuing crops. During the close of November and first week of December, Essex, Kentish, and Suffolk, white wheats were noted at 66/ to 68/, 70/ and 72/; red do. at 58/ to 60/, 63/ and 64/; exhibiting a reduction of 4/ to 6/ in the top quotations as compared with the commencement of the month of November ; while in May, red wheat of similar quality was noted at 52/ to 55/; white 56/ to 58/, shewing a decline in the extreme currencies, between the two periods, of 9/ on red and 12/ to 14/ on white qualities; manifesting that the speculation was principally on quality and condition, fine old white wheats having borne a higher relative value, when the samples brought to market were generally handling cold and damp. During the intermediate months, however, there have been strong operating causes which have contributed to depress the currencies considerably lower, then they might reasonably have been expected to have ranged, when the inclemency of the season is considered, and the doubtful state in which vegetation remained; this " pressure from without" was caused by the unprecedented condition of the money market, and the total disorganisation which the proceedings of the Bank of England have created in monetary engagements, mercantile confidence having been shaken to its very foundation; and though farmers have been latterly generally holding back supplies in expectation of enhanced rates, and which the high prices obtained previously for grain and stock have enabled them more readily to accomplish; yet we have not ceased to point out to them that little hope could by possibility be entertained in the reaction of grain or of any other commodity. In all convulsions of the monetary system, it follows as a sequence, that purchases and sales are regulated by the necessities of individuals, and not by any generally recognised standard of value, as in ordinary times; consequently the prices of those articles whose consumption is pressing on the power of production, recede the slowest in value; but where the reverse is the case, articles are precipitated even below the cost of production. During, therefore, this transitory stage in the value of commodities, no miller or merchant, purchasing beyond the amount necessary for the supply of immediate wants, the disengaged capital accumulated nearly in proportion to the increase of commercial difficulties, and became, as has been latterly exemplified, concentrated in the metropolis and larger towns, instead of being diffused over the provinces for the support of industry. As, there fore, it is evident that the vent for grain and all articles has been nearly measured by the actual consumption, it is equally evident that, under the contingencies which have occurred, it was highly improbable that the value of grain could be enhanced; but, as ranking among those articles before alluded to, whose consumption was pressing on supply, it continued to bear a high relative price compared with other commodities, though certain ultimately of sharing in the general depression

a depression which, calculating tcgether the profits of manufacturers and wages of the operatives, has exceeded 30 per cent. on most other commodities. Unless, therefore, positive scarcity was experienced, or the growing crops ascertained to be decidedly injured, no reaction in the markets could, on reflection, have been anticipated; though, at the same time, as the stocks of wheat have been considerably diminished in all the principal corn depots of the kingdom, prices must be necessarily more dependent on the above exceptions, as well as on the speculative inclinations and capability of growers to retain their stocks. It is also to be observed, that though there are perhaps throughout the country less wheat ricks than usual at this period of the season, yet it is known that farmers in districts of England hold a large quantity of this grain in chaff, having thrashed out freely from the want of straw for cattle; while in parts of Essex, Kent, Norfolk, and Suffolk, and in portions of Yorkshire, the yield of the last year's crop of wheat on being relieved from the straw exceeds anticipation, and leads to the belief that it will prove fully adequate to meet the deficiencies of less favoured districts, especially in Scotland and Ireland.

Annexed is a septennial account of the supplies of wheat and flour into the port of London, from England, Scotland, and Ireland, from the Michaelmas of one year to the 1st May succeeding.

Michs. 1st May 1830-1831

3,6901136

1831-1832

100,039 223,849 72 8,294 103,801 233,279 136,195 246,496 47,3472195 76,839 61,003 260,381 309,694 1832-1833 179,128 222,234 5,269 1373 20,890 22,031 205,287 245,638 13,355 17,699 215,700 254,248 4,530 5,031 259,942 245,679 1,065 1,019 257,794 261,232 5 2,677 054,372 268,498

1833-1834 194,803 235,308 7,542 1241 1834-1835 246,440 239,071 8,972 1577 1835-1836 255,414 258,277 1,315 1936 1836-1837 205,147 263,849 285 1972

The supplies of barley have continued liberal during the half-year, and the result of the trade has generally disappointed speculators and holders, an event which frequently occurs, when prices set in high, at an early period of the season. The markets, in order to be kept up in price, are only supplied by the grower to the presumed extent necessary for the immediate wants, and, when a relaxation of demand ensues, with large stocks on hand, and several thousand quarters of the foreign article pressing on the market at a low duty, a considerable depreciation must be the consequence. The principal cause which has operated unfavourably on the trade has been the constant heaviness of malt, and the difficulty maltsters have experienced in quitting the article, arising from the unusually large quantity of old malt in possession of the principal dealers, at the commencement of the past season, and which has materially circumscribed the customary demand for the new samples; not that any considerable diminution in the consumption of malt is to be implied, as the surplus of the previous year added to the present will strike an aver